China is set to take the United States over as the largest economy in the
world. military force is built ultimately on the economic strength if
current trends continue, China will become the second world superpower
alongside the United States, and perhaps ultimately the only superpower in
the world.
They already have 1.4 billion people, nuclear weapons, and easily the
largest standing army with 2.3 million soldiers worldwide. This is
certainly not good news for those of us who like the rule of law,
democracy, freedom of expression, due process and, you know, not to be
slaves.
To understand the Chinese, we must understand what they call the "century
of humiliation. "Between 1839 and 1949, the Western powers and Japan
interfered in China with impunity, killing tens of millions of Chinese.
Naturally, this is a great source of anger and shame and the Chinese
Communist Party to power itself built on the promise that this humiliation
will never be repeated. Unfortunately for the West and Japan, it may soon
be recovery time. Let's look at the five most likely scenarios for the rise
of the next superpower.
1. China has a progressive increase
This is easily the best of a bad bunch of options. Fortunately, it is also
most likely. In this scenario, China continues to grow and almost a century
from now it will be a first world nation in its own right with the largest
middle class on earth. These billions or the Chinese middle class will
consume a lot of things that we hope to keep the global economy slowed.
This large consumption on a finite planet will require serious
technological innovations not to destroy the earth. Get thinking people.
In this scenario, China will gradually expand its influence in the Pacific
and the United States will withdraw gracefully. Japan, Philippines,
Australia: you are now on your own.
The Chinese Communist Party will survive is anyone's guess. Economically,
they have already abandoned communism in all but name. If the CCP, however,
retains the authority then increased wealth will allow him to move from its
current room 1984 101 totalitarianism more control through pleasure and
apathy totalitarianism Brave New World.
Think a billion Chinese overweight on the couch watching reality TV virtual
reality. The latter will be more fun for the Chinese people, but also make
the CCP more difficult to reverse.
2. China has a rapidly increasing
This scenario is the "tipping point" and it has less to do with China and
more to do with the United States. If the US drops rapidly over the coming
decades when China will be able to extend its influence in the Pacific more
quickly than originally planned.
China's economy can survive without the export market of the United States?
Probably. If they are smart, and they are, they have already planned their
pivot away from the US market.
3. China collapses
Some experts predict that China is a social and economic house of cards
that will soon collapse. The economic depression, revolution, civil war:
make your choice. A population of 1.4 billion is a lot of people, so if
things go wrong, they go really bad. People will eat each other. This could
be the worst humanitarian crisis in history.
It may seem an ideal result for those of us in the West, but, like all
hunters know, beware of the wounded animal with nuclear weapons. And if the
Chinese economy diminishes the rest of the world will probably be in a bad
depression.
4. Chinese empire
Scenario 4 is a Chinese empire. But have we really learned from the
collapse of the European empires? Are not too expensive empires to build
and maintain? Well yeah. We can use translators and explain that the
Chinese all we want, but ultimately the decision will be to them. Maybe
they can make it work.
Most likely, they will not need to conquer and occupy the country
militarily. They simply use a combination of hard and soft power to
establish customer statements and trade relations in one direction. Maybe
they occupy Japan. China does not like Japan.
5. World War 3
Doomsday preppers, rejoice! It's time to start hoarding food, make bullets,
and digging bunkers. In the latter scenario (literally), the US (really
think someone they would?) Not retired gracefully and throw two nations
nuclear weapons to another. Or maybe China against India or China against
Russia. China has not really with anyone.
Whoever draws nuclear missiles that we are all screwed. Duck and cover,
pull out your sleeping bag and prepare for nuclear winter.
Conclusion
Let us all hope for a scenario and start learning a language and Chinese
history. It will really help.
At the end of the day China respects strength. If the West can not remain
as the world police then we must at least maintain our defensive military
capability and make things difficult for China if they choose the path of
aggression. It is probably not a bad idea to make canned food provision and
bottled water too. Ganbei!
Read more: Why is China winning the game of civilization
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